Experiment reveals why pundits can be unreliable

Decisions by policymakers and managers often rely on predictions and forecasts provided by experts. For instance, policymakers may increase public investments if they anticipate economic stagnation, and companies may introduce new products if they anticipate sufficient demand. The predictions of future trends by experts play a crucial role in informing these decisions. Thus, the accuracy of experts is closely monitored, and forecasters with a proven track record of accurate predictions may have significant career opportunities.

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